2009 Oscar Predictions and Proclamations

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Fresh off our 25-for-35 Grammy prediction performance a few weeks back, we look to pick some Oscar winners at the 2009 Academy Awards this Sunday. Following each Oscar prediction are our picks for who should win and who else we would have liked to have seen nominated. And once you've added these films to your Netflix queue, check out Paste's Top 20 films of 2008.

Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
 
The Nominees:
Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler
 
Who will win: Mickey Rourke
Like Ari Gold says, "Hollywood loves a comeback." It's possible that this is Milk's consolation prize, and the award goes to Sean Penn's transformative turn, but Rourke's speeches at the Globes and BAFTA's were charming, funny and tugged at the heartstrings—everything he needed to do in order to turn voters wavering between him and Penn in his favor.  

Who should win: Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler
Two words: staple gun. He made us see the beauty inside the beast. Brutal, tender, touching, crushing, fascinating, he just plain is the Ram for 100 minutes. But we're also thrilled Richard Jenkins got nominated and wouldn't mind seeing the dark horse prevail.
 
Biggest oversight: Leonardo DiCaprio - Revolutionary Road
DiCaprio finally finds a role that challenges him and forces him to go places he's never gone before, and he doesn't even get nominated?

Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
 
Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey Jr. - Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road
 
Who will win: Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Heath delivered a transformative, transcendent performance, but given Hollywood's dismissal of genre movies, he'll get this as much for his death (and goodwill from Brokeback Mountain) as for the (very real) merits.
 
Who should win: Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Why: As much as Shannon makes Revolutionary Road his movie in two brief scenes, Ledger's performance is an institution, and it's exactly the kind of transcendent Hollywood acting the Academy honored in its heyday. That it's also a bittersweet touchstone of pop-culture history doesn't hurt.
 
Biggest oversight: Brendan Gleeson - In Bruges
Gleeson is always better than his material, and here he's even better than some great material (the best original script of the year). Colin Farrell won the Golden Globe, but it's Gleeson's haunted, textured performance that drives the film.
 
Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
 
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Melissa Leo - Frozen River
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - The Reader
 
Who will win: Kate Winslet - The Reader
There is widespread agreement that her time has come, even if the win will come for the wrong movie, even though her silences in The Reader speak more than most actress' words.  If she pulls it off, it'll be refreshing to see a subtle, subdued performance win.
 
Who should win: Melissa Leo - Frozen River
Hard-working character actress finds the role of a lifetime as a mother doing all she can with what she has, and she absolutely nails it.
 
Biggest oversight: Sally Hawkins - Happy Go Lucky
Hawkins manages to make the perky Poppy at once the most annoying and most endearing character of the year. Kristen Scott-Thomas also gave a gut-wrenching, skillful performance imbued with the perfect mix of subtlety and pathos in I've Loved You So Long.

Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams - Doubt
Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis - Doubt
Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler
 
Who will win: Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
She's a previous nominee, and Woody Allen has a history of nabbing supporting Oscars for his actors (Dianne Wiest, Mira Sorvino, Michael Caine). Her closest competitors Viola Davis and Marisa Tomei both have large roadblocks: the former is only on-screen for a handful of minutes, and the latter has already won.
 
Who should win: Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Because she made us go "Scarlett who?" and gave Woody his wood back. She brings real intimacy to what could otherwise have become caricature.
 
Biggest oversight: Rosemarie Dewitt, Rachel Getting Married
The movie wouldn't have been the same without the title sister and DeWitt's even-handed, graceful turn that takes us through the range of emotions the Hathaway's character's family goes through when she returns home.

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
 
Bolt
Kung-Fu Panda
WALL-E
 
Who will win: WALL-E
After a big best-picture push didn't get results, this is a sure thing for Pixar.
 
Who should win: WALL-E
The most charismatic character of the year is an animated robot who doesn't speak and has nearly no facial expression. That alone clinches it. Bolt and Kung Fu Panda don't even compare.
 
Biggest oversight: Waltz with Bashir
It speaks to the Academy's singular lack of vision that a flooring movie that uses animation to totally original ends wouldn't even earn a nomination. This has officially become a pet category, ceded to whatever studio funds the biggest marketing push.