What to expect from the 2009 Oscars: set photos, trailer, a stat guru's predicitions and Stephen Colbert's take

With the show finally less than a week away, several tidbits have popped up about the Academy Awards over the last few days. The main story was in Sunday’s New York Times, which unveiled artist renderings of the new set (above) designed for the jazzed-up production that will go on Sunday with Hugh Jackman as host.

David Rockwell, the architect who designed the theater where Oscar ceremonies are held, also put together the glitzy new set. The photo above may look like a little much, but the show’s producers say they have come up with an entire narrative for the show, and even the nominees have been warned to expect vast changes from years past.

Click here for the ceremony's new official trailer, directed by John Singleton (Boyz in the Hood, Four Brothers).

Meanwhile, the number crunchers have entered the twilight hour, and consensus remains strong about the top categories. To underscore this point, New York magazine snagged Nate Silver to create a spreadsheet to determine the probability that, say, Slumdog Millionaire will clinch best picture. (That’d be 99 percent, Silver says; only Milk has a shot at beating it, with one percent.)

Silver, proprietor of FiveThirtyEight.com, first earned attention for his analysis of baseball stats and later became a media fixture when he called the election for Obama—in March.

His most controversial call came for best supporting actress, who he predicted would be Taraji P. Henson of The Curious Case of Benjamin Button with 51 percent chances. (Penelope Cruz, who is favored to win elsewhere, was a distant second with 24.6 percent odds; Amy Adams and Viola Davis, head-to-head for Doubt, came in at 11.6 percent apiece.) And though many have ceded the best-actor award to Sean Penn, he earned just 19 percent chances from Silver, while Mickey Rourke pulled ahead at 71.1 percent.

Other odds are more predictable. Heath Ledger for best supporting actor fell at 85 percent (Silver estimates that Josh Brolin has a 5 percent shot at an upset). His complete rundown of the major categories is here, along with some info on methodology.

Last and probably least, some of Stephen Colbert's predictions, dubbed "The DaColbert Code," have turned up on the web: