What is Fox's Secret Weapon if Avatar Fails?

Hint: It’s cheerfully annoying, it stars Jason Lee and you probably forgot it was coming out—if you ever knew in the first place.

In a much-discussed article that appeared in yesterday’s New York Times, the paper reported that Fox’s big plan to foil the potential financial fallout from James Cameron’s Avatar (other than a conspiracy of non-studio investments) lies in Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel, the inevitable follow-up to the $200 million surprise hit from two years ago. The suggestion is a depressing if somewhat funny reminder of how a mega-risk like Avatar ultimately gets produced.

The Times’ ambitious article maps out many of the business intersections that Avatar has created, including a claim that the film will ultimately cost $500 million to produce and market, which has already provoked angry questions elsewhere. Of course, budgets are notoriously difficult to pin down, especially in a case of a movie this size, where everyone who has access to solid numbers has strong motivation to manipulate them and limit exposure.

Whatever the case, Avatar opens Dec. 18, and every eye in Hollywood will be transfixed. So far no one seems able to say whether anyone else will follow them.

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