2013 Oscar Preview: Who Will Win, Who Should Win

Published at 4:56 PM on February 24, 2013

By Michael Dunaway

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For awhile, it looked like Argo was the film to beat. Then Lincoln came along and it was a two-film fight. But once Zero Dark Thirty hit theaters, it made Argo look a bit light, a bit frothy, and it took over as the favorite. But the debate over the film’s treatment of aggressive interrogation techniques soon endangered its frontrunner status (we came down ont he side of Bigelow and company here). A few outside-the-box-thinking publications (ahem) proclaimed Life of Pi to be the year’s best film. And in all the confusion, there’s even word that Harvey Weinstein might pull a rabbit out of the hat for Silver Linings Playbook. On Sunday night, the wildest Oscar season in years comes to a close. Here’s our best guess as to where everything will stand once all the confetti has flown.

Visual Effects
Who’s Nominated:
Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and R. Christopher White, Life Of Pi
Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan De Boer and Donald R. Elliott, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams and Dan Sudick, Marvel’s The Avengers
Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley and Martin Hill, Prometheus
Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Philip Brennan, Neil Corbould and Michael Dawson, Snow White And The Huntsman

Who Will Win: Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and R. Christopher White, Life Of Pi
Who Should Win: Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and R. Christopher White, Life Of Pi

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Who’s Nominated:
Chris Terrio, Argo
Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin, Beasts Of The Southern Wild
David Magee, Life Of Pi
Tony Kushner, Lincoln
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

Who Will Win: David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Who Should Win: David Magee, Life Of Pi

Comments:
The smart money is on Argo here as the Academy tries to give it enough buttressing awards to justify a Best Picture, but we just have a feeling that Harvey Weinstein is pushing hard for this one.

Writing (Original Screenplay)
Who’s Nominated:
Michael Haneke, Amour
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
John Gatins, Flight
Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom
Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty

Who Will Win: Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Who Should Win: Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom

Comments:
Rewarding Django here is the Academy’s idea of being daring.

Animated Feature Film
Who’s Nominated:
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Pirates! Band Of Misfits
Wreck-It Ralph

Who Will Win: Wreck-It Ralph
Who Should Win: Brave

Documentary (Feature)
Who’s Nominated:
5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
How To Survive A Plague
The Invisible War
Searching For Sugar Man

Who Will Win: Searching For Sugar Man
Who Should Win: Searching For Sugar Man
Who Should Really Win: Low and Clear

Comments:
Reading the description of Kahlil Hudson and Tyler Hughen’s remarkable film—two friends who are world-class fishermen, half a country apart, take a trip to British Columbia to fly fish and reconnect—you’ll think that you’re in for a slow, meditative, deeply felt journey with lots of beautiful scenery. And it is meditative and deeply felt and beautiful, but it’s anything but slow. Having two fascinating, outspoken, and often at-odds subjects helps, as does the deft and slightly mischievous touch of editor Alex Jablonski. But most of all, Hudson and Hughen seem determined not to settle for a tone poem and tell a real story here. And it’s mesmerizing. Unfortunately, few people seem to have seen Low and Clear and we won’t begrudge the fascinating Searching For Sugar Man for some deserved accolades.

Actor in a Supporting Role
Who’s Nominated:
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

Who Will Win: Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Who Should Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Who Should Really Win: Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Comments:
The most amazing part of Phoenix’s portrayal stems from his ability to take full advantage of the humor within his character. He is a sad man, a desperate man, an angry man—but there’s no denying the absurd humor inherent in his person. After Freddie drunkenly stows away upon Dodd’s river cruise party, Dodd takes a liking to him and takes him on board. He soon subjects Freddie to a nearly hypnotic question-and-answer session. The manner in which Phoenix delivers even the simplest one-word answers is remarkable. —Jeremy Matthews

Actress in a Supporting Role
Who’s Nominated:
Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

Who Will Win: Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Who Should Win: Helen Hunt, The Sessions

Comments:
There’s a disturbing trend of women needing to disrobe to get the Academy’s attention (see Monster’s Ball), but that shouldn’t implicate Hunt’s fine work here—she’s already conquered the Academy’s mountain, anyway. And her performance stands on its own. Her Cheryl is so casually disarming that she helps focus the audience’s attention, as well as Hawkes’ character’s, on the true issues of intimacy at hand.

Actor in a Leading Role
Who’s Nominated:
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight

Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Who Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

Comments:
In the role of the 16th president, Daniel Day-Lewis delivers one of the best performances in a career already full of stellar turns. Given his devotion to the Method and his intense concentration as an artist, Day-Lewis could have easily created a tremendous caricature of Lincoln that would have worked quite well. Instead, he demonstrates masterful restraint, presenting a simple, subtle take on the former president, as if he had spent years shadowing Lincoln instead of years reading books about him. Day-Lewis’ Lincoln is sad, quiet, wise, hopeful and surprisingly witty. —David Roark

Actress in a Leading Role
Who’s Nominated:
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts Of The Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Who Will Win: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Who Should Win: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Comments:
In the already iconic trailer for Kathryn Bigelow’s stunning Zero Dark Thirty, a SEAL asks his team leader if he really believes that they’re going after Osama Bin Laden this time, and not chasing yet another false lead. The leader (Joel Edgerton) answers “Yeah.” “What part convinced you?” he’s asked. Edgerton points to Jessica Chastain’s Maya, standing off to one side. “Her confidence,” he says simply. Looking at her in that moment, the audience knows exactly what he means. Maya’s body language and demeanor at that moment could be drawn up for an illustration next to the dictionary definition of “cocksure.” It doesn’t hurt that she rocks the aviator shades better than any movie character since Tom Cruise’s Maverick in Top Gun. So when you finally see the film, you’re a bit shocked by the Maya you see 10 years earlier. She’s wide-eyed, hesitant, still gaining her bearing, almost like a young foal. Safely out of earshot of the prisoners, the chief interrogator snickers at her for coming to her first interrogation in her “best suit, just off the plane from DC.” She blushes and looks down. This isn’t the Maya we saw in the previews. How she gets from here to there is one of the marvels of the film. In her tour-de-force coming out party of 2011, Chastain showed how deep her work can be, so we shouldn’t be surprised that she’s able to capture Maya’s growing obsession and rising confidence. But she brings a singleness of focus to the task that impresses even those already well-versed in her talent.

Directing
Who’s Nominated:
Michael Haneke, Amour
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts Of The Southern Wild
Ang Lee, Life Of Pi
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

Who Will Win: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Who Should Win: Ang Lee, Life Of Pi

Comments:
Leave it to director Ang Lee to create a thinking man’s blockbuster. In much of his past work, he has strived to imbue his stories with a deep sense of purpose—to explore themes of longing and connection. Even when dabbling in genre films, he’s tried to look past the Hollywood flash and stay true to this artistic vision, for better (Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon) or worse (Hulk). With Life of Pi, Lee may have found the perfect balance of spectacle and substance, creating his best outing in years.—Dan Kaufman

Best Picture
Who’s Nominated:
Amour
Argo
Beasts Of The Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Life Of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty