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There's a surprisingly gargantuan Internet faction dedicated to predicting who will be up for film's most coveted prize, the Academy Award. Publications like Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, Entertainment Weekly, Los Angeles Times and New York Times all have Oscar blogs that obsessively trail the fluctuations in buzz amongst the year's top films. That's not to mention stand-alone sites like Awards Daily and In Contention, or well-known bloggers like Jeff Wells, Dave Poland and Anne Thompson. Even Roger Ebert has devoted a wealth of recent ink on the subject. But, the truth is, no matter how much someone knows, it's still just a wild guessing game.
Here's a look at the films and performances that seem to be ahead in the eight major categories, at this vantage point. Take note: this is merely speculation about who will be nominated, not who will win. It's also just that: speculation.
1. Woody Allen, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
2. Dustin Lance Black, Milk
3. Jenny Lumet, Rachel Getting Married
4. Thomas McCarthy, The Visitor
5. Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky
Strong Contenders: Nick Schenk, Gran Torino; Robert D. Siegel, The Wrestler; Andrew Stanton, Wall-E
Longshots: Charlie Kaufman, Synecdoche, New York; Martin McDonagh, In Bruges; Joel and Ethan Coen, Burn After Reading
Allen has been nominated 14 times as a screenwriter. He's a shoo-in. Likewise, Milk, The Visitor and Rachel Getting Married are exactly the type of indie films typically embraced in this category. The fifth slot seems wide open. The Academy loves Leigh, so he gets the edge (see: Vera Drake, Secrets & Lies).
1. Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
2. Eric Roth, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
3. John Patrick Shanley, Doubt
4. Justin Haythe, Revolutionary Road
5. David Hare, The Reader
Strong Contenders: Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon; Jonathan and Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Longshot: Clayton Frohman and Edward Zwick, Defiance
The lack of contenders assures this category will be stock full of films also in the running for best picture. Any combination of the eight picks above sound plausible, but word on Frost/Nixon is still soft and The Dark Knight doesn't seem to be particularly lauded for its writing. The Reader seems likely, even if the film doesn't score in any other major category.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Woody Allen, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
2. Dustin Lance Black, Milk
3. Jenny Lumet, Rachel Getting Married
4. Thomas McCarthy, The Visitor
5. Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky
Strong Contenders: Nick Schenk, Gran Torino; Robert D. Siegel, The Wrestler; Andrew Stanton, Wall-E
Longshots: Charlie Kaufman, Synecdoche, New York; Martin McDonagh, In Bruges; Joel and Ethan Coen, Burn After Reading
Allen has been nominated 14 times as a screenwriter. He's a shoo-in. Likewise, Milk, The Visitor and Rachel Getting Married are exactly the type of indie films typically embraced in this category. The fifth slot seems wide open. The Academy loves Leigh, so he gets the edge (see: Vera Drake, Secrets & Lies).
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
2. Eric Roth, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
3. John Patrick Shanley, Doubt
4. Justin Haythe, Revolutionary Road
5. David Hare, The Reader
Strong Contenders: Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon; Jonathan and Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Longshot: Clayton Frohman and Edward Zwick, Defiance
The lack of contenders assures this category will be stock full of films also in the running for best picture. Any combination of the eight picks above sound plausible, but word on Frost/Nixon is still soft and The Dark Knight doesn't seem to be particularly lauded for its writing. The Reader seems likely, even if the film doesn't score in any other major category.
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I'd love to see Richard Jenkins get a nod for Best Actor. And The Visitor surprise everyone with a Best Picture nomination.
Milk isn't an original screenplay.
Wait, why would Dev Patel be in Supporting category when you yourself acknowledge he's lead?
Ita all so contrived and predictable:
An English Actress will be nominated in both support and lead roles.
The best film will embrace a controversial topic ie Milk
Brad Pitt was criminaly underestimated in last years Jesse James so i see him getting a best actor nod and because he is working with Fincher he too will be represented in the best director category.
Clint has said that this is his last year as a actor so he could be a sentimental bet for best actor.
Hathaway will be the pretty young thing outside bet.
Keep an eye out for Hunger which is picking up indie awards left right and centre. It embracesses a controversial topic and no doubt this will influence the academy voters. However, the Director is a former artist and the lead actor Fassenbender lost alot of weight for the role. They like it when an actor does this. Both these men could pick up noms in Director and Actor categories respectively....just dont expect them to win.
Yes, Eastwood's plan to retire is a gimmick to get the Oscar he has always dreamt of: the Best Male Lead Award. Sincerely, he has been overpraised by modern voters. Giving him an Oscar in this category would be laughable.