Oscar Buzz: Who's ahead in this year's key races?

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
2. Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
3. Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
4. Josh Brolin, Milk
5. James Franco, Milk

Strong Contenders: Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire; Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder; Ralph Fiennes or David Kross, The Reader
Longshots: Liev Schreiber or Jamie Bell, Defiance; Bill Irwin, Rachel Getting Married; Jason Flemyng, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Can Milk score two supporting nominations? Perhaps. Can Downey Jr. really be nominated for the comedy Tropic Thunder? Definitely (it's not as far-fetched as it sounds). Can the fresh-faced Patel, essentially the lead in Slumdog Millionaire, nab a supporting nomination for his first movie? Possibly, depending on the overall love for the film. Outside of the top three (who all seem like safe bets), any combination is possible. But the real question will be whether Ledger will posthumously win or not.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
2. Kate Winslet, The Reader
3. Viola Davis, Doubt
4. Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
5. Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

Strong Contenders: Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married; Amy Adams, Doubt; Kathy Bates, Revolutionary Road; Vera Farmiga, Nothing But the Truth; Debra Winger, Rachel Getting Married
Longshots: Hiam Abbass, The Visitor; Rebecca Hall, Vicky Cristina Barcelona; Freida Pinto, Slumdog Millionaire

Cruz has long been a sure thing for her scene-stealing performance. Winslet seems destined for a double-nomination, but word on The Reader is respectful but not enthusiastic. Davis has already earned raves for her brief, but powerful performance in Doubt. And Henson, so good in Hustle & Flow and Talk to Me, is said to be the emotional center of Benjamin Button. Late-starters Bates and Farmiga could easily rise.

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5 Comments

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By Josh Jackson on December 1, 2008

I'd love to see Richard Jenkins get a nod for Best Actor. And The Visitor surprise everyone with a Best Picture nomination.

By Dave on December 3, 2008

Milk isn't an original screenplay.

By Dave on December 3, 2008

Wait, why would Dev Patel be in Supporting category when you yourself acknowledge he's lead?

By will march on December 3, 2008

Ita all so contrived and predictable:

An English Actress will be nominated in both support and lead roles.
The best film will embrace a controversial topic ie Milk
Brad Pitt was criminaly underestimated in last years Jesse James so i see him getting a best actor nod and because he is working with Fincher he too will be represented in the best director category.
Clint has said that this is his last year as a actor so he could be a sentimental bet for best actor.
Hathaway will be the pretty young thing outside bet.

Keep an eye out for Hunger which is picking up indie awards left right and centre. It embracesses a controversial topic and no doubt this will influence the academy voters. However, the Director is a former artist and the lead actor Fassenbender lost alot of weight for the role. They like it when an actor does this. Both these men could pick up noms in Director and Actor categories respectively....just dont expect them to win.

By Frank on December 4, 2008

Yes, Eastwood's plan to retire is a gimmick to get the Oscar he has always dreamt of: the Best Male Lead Award. Sincerely, he has been overpraised by modern voters. Giving him an Oscar in this category would be laughable.