World Cup Update: Elimination Rounds and US vs. Ghana Preview

Greetings from North London, where I am stalking Arsene Wenger in the hopes that Arsenal will sign U.S. midfielder Michael Bradley (Not really. I’m still just a man and his computer.) We are down to 16 teams so let’s take a look at some key story lines and predictions before breaking down the USA-Ghana match-up.

The Sweet 16

The composite of the remaining 16 teams? All five South American teams made the cut. Two of three North American teams survived. South Korea and Japan made surprising runs into the second round, with Japan an especially unexpected arrival. Ghana remains the sole African hope. Six European teams are left—a list that does not include defending champion Italy or runner-up France (ha!). Surprising first place finishes by Uruguay and the United States have created a bracket that guarantees one of the following teams a semi-final berth: Uruguay, South Korea, the United States or Ghana. Wow.

Enticing Second Round Match-Ups

We’ve got four powerhouse match-ups in the second round and a couple others that are intriguing. We have an Iberian battle between Spain and Portugal. Germany and England renew their old rivalry, with German legend Franz Beckenbauer stirring the pot prior to the match. Argentina-Mexico will provide entertainment and goals. Brazil-Chile? Ditto. The USA-Ghana match-up is a rematch of 2006, when Ghana knocked the Yanks out of the Cup. The Netherlands will be favored against Slovakia, but after the latter’s 3-2 wild victory over Italy, perhaps we shouldn’t count them out just yet. Finally, there is Paraguay-Japan. Eh…though Keisuke Honda has become a breakout performer this World Cup.

Favorites, Darkhorses and Villains

So who should be favored? Brazil, Spain, Argentina, with potential runs by the Netherlands and (groan) Portugal. I nominate Portugal as the villain of the remaining teams. Suspect tackles, dives, melodrama, and Christiano Ronaldo—go Spain! Cinderella runs? I think Uruguay or the United States, by virtue of making the semifinals, could be considered. It will also be interesting to see what Chile, with its fascinating tactics and Belichick-like manager (http://www.zonalmarking.net/2010/06/08/marcelo-bielsa-chile-world-cup-2010-tactics/) can do facing familiar foe Brazil. At the moment, I like Uruguay, Brazil, Argentina and Spain for the semifinals, but the USA, Netherlands, Germany/England winner and Portugal may have something to say about that.

The Harrowing Specter of Switzerland-Honduras

This isn’t really relevant going forward, but I just wanted to note that in the interest of my desire for both Spain and Chile to advance to the second round, I watched the final 15 minutes of Switzerland-Honduras. Switzerland at that point needed two goals to advance over Chile, which meant they poured people forward and left Honduras wide-open chances on the counter-attack. Honduras made the wrong pass/non-pass/shot nearly every time, followed by a bickering session between teammates. It was frighteningly bad, as was Switzerland’s inability to convert multiple chances. The final score, deservedly and wretchedly, was 0-0. I wanted my CONCACAF brethren to represent, but watching this match for soccer enjoyment was like "watching ‘Sex and the City 2’ ":http://www.pastemagazine.com/blogs/lists/2010/05/8-something-sex-and-the-city-2.html for understanding the geopolitics of Islam and the West.

US-Ghana Preview

First of all, what did Donovan’s extra-time winner mean for American soccer? I think a lot, though a loss to Ghana today would perhaps dampen the effect. But the collective outburst of joy was something to behold, whether watching in the confines of your home, cubicle or pub. It sure meant a lot to these folks. One factor coming into this match is stamina, as both teams are playing on short rest. Here are three helpful previews from some of the usual suspects: SI’s Grant Wahl, Fox Soccer’s Ives Galarcep, and Jonathan Wilson.

Let me quote Wilson here in a nice encapsulation of what we face tomorrow: “Ghana certainly won’t be afraid of allowing the U.S. to dominate possession, and that is where U.S.’ lack of width may be an issue. Even Germany needed a special goal—albeit one permitted by a momentary lapse in the marking structure—to beat Ghana. This is not going to be open game and, even more than usual, it is one likely to be decided by the first goal. Ghana is a fine team at holding a lead; rather poorer, as it showed against Australia, when the onus is on it to take the initiative. Not since that Mali game last November has it successfully overcome a deficit.” This will be a low scoring match and it is crucial that our defensive vulnerabilities don’t put us in an early hole. I still believe that Dempsey and Donovan on the wings will cause difficulties and that we will find a way as we have in our previous matches. But it will be tough slogging. Will Robbie Findley return to the starting line-up? Will Clark or Edu start in the middle? Does Oguchi get reinstated to central defense? Important line-up decisions await Bradley, but either way he’s made effective adjustments. Prediction: 1-1 and USA win on penalties. Yikes…

Meanwhile, I’m going to relax my nerves by reliving Ian Darke’s now-famous call of Donovan’s goal. “Can they do it here? Cross, and Dempsey is denied again. And Donovan has scored! Oh can you believe this! Goal, Goal USA! Certainly through! Oh, it’s incredible! You could not write a script like this!” Let’s hope for the sequel today…