Whether we like it or not, horse race season is upon us, and that means pundits and voters and candidates will increasingly be asking a simple question: Which Democrat has the best chance against Trump? The numbers have fluctuated throughout the primary, but in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, it’s Bernie Sanders who has the best hypothetical numbers against the president:
Sanders and Biden are both +4 in the hypothetical match-up, but it's Sanders who attracts the most voters. It's all within the margin of error still, but these results are good enough to put the lie to the idea that Sanders' ideas somehow make him unelectable. Sanders and Biden both lead Warren, who holds a +2 margin over Trump, While Bloomberg is +1 and Buttigieg (-1) is the only likely nominee who trails Trump.
Biden is currently lagging behind Sanders and Buttigieg in the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire, but the good news for him is that the same southern firewall that protected Hillary Clinton is also serving him well two months away from the start of the caucuses and primaries:
If he can retain the support of half of all black voters on Super Tuesday, he’ll accrue a strong share of delegates and make it hard for any candidate to keep up with him by the numbers.