Breaking Down the Situation in Slovakia: A Murdered Journalist, A Government on the Brink

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Breaking Down the Situation in Slovakia: A Murdered Journalist, A Government on the Brink

The Slovakian government is on the brink. Last Friday tens of thousands of protesters filled the streets in Bratislava to demand the resignation of Prime Minister Robert Fico in the wake of the recent execution-style murder of an investigative journalist. Thousands of people showed up in solidarity in cities across the country, as well as in major European cities. The crisis, which expanded into a corruption scandal that has already claimed the resignations of two government ministers, threatens to destabilize the national government and has given renewed urgency to questions about the overall health of the European Union.

That said, the protesters—led by activist groups and backed by students, celebrities, and journalists—have in a short time prompted substantive change: A major shake-up and snap election now seem all but certain, and the future for Fico, who has led the government for ten of the last twelve years, is in serious doubt. More marches are planned to maintain pressure. The story also gives us a good look at how coalition governments function, or don’t. Here’s a breakdown.

On Feb. 25, investigative reporter Ján Kuciak and his fiancé, Martina Kušnírová, were found shot to death in their home. The 27-year-old Kuciak had been pursuing a corruption case in which Slovakian government employees were cooperating with organized criminals to steal money from the European Union. In his final story, which was published posthumously and unfinished, Kuciak connected members of the ‘Ndrangheta Italian criminal syndicate to several senior officials, including advisers close to Fico. Those senior officials included Deputy Prime Minister Robert Kalinák, who was, coincidentally, also overseeing the investigation into Kuciak’s murder. Kalinák stepped down Monday in the wake of the protests and calls for his resignation from within the government itself, including from Fico, who cited his obvious conflict of interest.

“I think to fulfill my mandate I have to do everything to preserve stability in Slovakia,” Kalinák said. “For this reason I have decided to resign as deputy prime minister and interior minister.” How selfless.

As for the murders, Slovakian police have confirmed that Kuciak was most likely killed because of his corruption investigation, which centered on a mafioso-government scheme to steal money from the European Union. Police arrested seven members of the ‘Ndrangheta syndicate in raids after the murders, but they released all seven of them—get this—on the day of Kuciak’s funeral. The police said they’d uncovered no hard evidence connecting the detained to the murder, and after 48 hours were legally obligated to let them go. After that, E.U. officials began to demand Slovakian police turn the investigation over to Europe.

No government officials have been implicated in the murder, and none have been definitively connected to the scandal. Fico has gone to theatrical lengths to assert his innocence, holding press conferences about the investigation on an near-daily basis and at one point laying one million Euros on a table as bounty for the murderers. Still, protesters and members of the opposition say the only way that Kuciak and his work will get a fair shake is if the ruling party is removed. Their government, they say, has lost their faith. They’ve got a pretty good point.

What’s Going to Happen?

The crisis is moving fast. Kalinák’s resignation signals serious trouble ahead for Fico, a Social Democrat who has as the head of the center-left Smer party led the Slovakian government for ten of the last twelve years. Protesters Friday chanted “Enough of Fico” and jangled keys in the air, a reference to to the 1989 anti-communist rallies, and in the political realm, the Most-Hid party, one of the three that comprise Fico’s delicate governing coalition, said Monday that, even considering Kalinák’s resignation, they’d leave the coalition if the government didn’t hold a snap election. If Most-Hid does leave, it would cost Fico his governing majority. Slovakian President Andrej Kiska, a political rival who beat Fico in the 2014 Presidential election, also said the country needed either a major shake-up or new elections to restore confidence in the government.

The negotiations have pushed the Slovakian government to the edge of collapse. Most-Hid’s threat to leave is a major gambit, but they’ve got the voice of the people behind them, and a new, “snap” election seems increasingly likely. Can Fico and his slim majority survive it?

Maybe not, but there’s a chance. Fico could tap the populist wave sweeping Europe, and fortunately for him, he has (for now) the support of a far-right nationalist party which, weirdly, is part of his center-left coalition. If he can hold on to their support, it’s possible he could still lead a minority government.

So What Does This Have to Do with The E.U.?

Economic nationalism (or what I like to call “racism”) has surged in Europe, yielding the biggest political dividends in Austria, Hungary, and Poland, but also making advances in France, Italy, the Netherlands, and Germany. Of course, Brexit was the biggest seismic event. For many people driving this movement, the E.U. is a favorite target: They want to do things their way, the way they’ve always done them. It’s possible that Fico could step back from the E.U. and consolidate Slovakia’s extreme populist vote.

He’s already signaled something of an overture to the right wing. For one, he claimed President Kiska is taking part in the opposition, an accusation that further fractures the political landscape: unlike in the U.S., in a parliamentary system the office of President is supposed to be largely ceremonial and apolitical. Fico also blamed Friday’s major protests on, hilariously, George Soros.

(The Prime Minister of Hungary, whacked-out right-wing authoritarian Viktor Orban, has also accused Soros of meddling in his country’s politics. And probably so have a few whacked-out right-wing authoritarian Americans reading this article.)

So that’s all a little strange. After all, Fico is a leftist, a member of the Communist Party until the fall of the regime in 1989, at which point he wisely switched parties, though he carried over certain of his left-wing allegiances. And in his tenure at the head of the government Fico has nudged the formerly ostracized nation closer to mainstream E.U. politics, including offering support to Emmanuel Macron in the French elections last year.

But as we saw in the U.S. with some Bernie-Trump voters, the political spectrum isn’t a straight left-right line. Fico might indeed be able to square this circle by taking an extreme step in the direction of economic nationalism. He might be able to secure the necessary street cred, too, if the nationalist party, wanting to cling to their current seat of power, sticks with him.

Currently, a new election seems inevitable, and it also seems the Slovakian people have had enough of their government. To me it seems pretty likely they’ll throw Fico et al out. But after the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and other major events such as Occupy Wall Street, the election of Donald Trump, and the impotent and incompetent efforts to dismantle Obamacare, we should have learned by now a simple lesson: It’s easy to get a lot of people to agree to destroy something, but it’s hard to get a lot of people to agree on what to create in its place. Granted, Slovakia isn’t France, and some sort of revolution or populist takeover there won’t directly and immediately change the course of the European Union. But it might be another gust of wind. It depends on whether and how Fico tries to stay in power, and, if and when the ruling coalition changes, what will replace it.

All that said, more power to you, Slovakia. First do the right thing.

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