Elizabeth Warren Leads Joe Biden in New Poll of First 18 Primary States

CBS News reports that in a new tracking poll, Elizabeth Warren has a “slim, one-point edge over former Vice President Joe Biden.” The poll looked at the first 18 caucus and primary states:

More broadly, in aggregate vote preference across the early-state contests through Super Tuesday 2020 — the most important contests up front — Warren has risen and holds a one-point edge over Biden. These figures capture the impact of campaigns that are focusing on the earliest states, in contrast to other national polls that include states that won’t vote until late spring.

By this measure, Warren leads Biden by 27% to 26%, with Sanders in third at 19%. This marks the second time Warren has led Biden in a national or, in this case, semi-national poll, though she and Sanders have both led him in multiple polls in individual states.

In the same CBS poll, Biden maintains his lead in Iowa, Sanders leads in Nevada, and Warren holds a slim edge in New Hampshire. In South Carolina, however—the other “first four” primary state—Biden holds a massive edge, 43% to 18% for Sanders and 14% for Warren. Because of that, he maintains a projected delegate lead over both Warren and Sanders over the first 18 states, with 600 estimated delegates to 545 for Warren and 286 for Sanders.

Like Hillary Clinton’s run in 2016, Biden’s path to victory very much runs through the Republican states of the southeast, where his big leads in states like South Carolina, North Carolina, and Alabama—bolstered by his overwhelming support from black voters—gives him wide margins against his opponents that would be more than enough to overcome small losses in other states like Nevada and Iowa.

For that reason, it still looks like Biden’s delegate advantage may be insurmountable, though that could all change if Warren or Sanders were to drop out and throw support to the other, as it now looks like the combined support between both could be enough to overcome Biden’s margin.