Reality AF: Ranking The Traitors Season 3 Cast Members Win Probability
Photos courtesy of Peacock
The Traitors—the reality series full of treachery, backstabbing, and double crossing—is back. Season three, which premieres on Peacock on Jan. 9, has a stacked cast. As you’d expect, there are several former Survivor and Big Brother contestants, as well as a number of Real Housewives on the roster. But there’s also people you wouldn’t anticipate like a retired wrestler, a British royal, and Zac Efron’s brother.
All told, there are 21 reality stars competing for $250,000 in the third season of The Traitors. But who has the best odds of taking home the cash prize? Below are my picks for who has the highest probability to win this time around.
21. Rob Mariano
Known for: Survivor (6x), The Amazing Race (2x), winner of Survivor: Redemption Island
Recently seen on: Deal or No Deal Island, any TV where a reality show is airing
Win Probability: 1%
Boston Rob is my all-time favorite Survivor contestant, even though he didn’t make my top 10 list of Survivor greats. That said, he has a snowball’s chance in Phoenix of winning this game. There’s no way players give the poster boy for aggressive play on competitive reality shows a chance to win. I can already hear Boston Rob saying in his slow New England drawl, “If they were smaht, they wouldn’t keep me around.” And they won’t.
20. Tom Sandoval
Known for: Vanderpump Rules, two terrible Bon Jovi music videos
Recently seen on: Special Forces: World’s Toughest Test, The Masked Singer
Win Probability: 2%
Tom Sandoval is too notorious for anyone to trust. The Scandoval controversy, which details how Tom cheated on his girlfriend of nine years with her best friend, sent major ripples across the reality landscape in 2023. No one on this cast from the Bravoverse will trust him and once the entire group learns of his sordid past, neither will anyone else.
19. Ciara Miller
Known for: Summer House
Recently seen on: Instagram promoting beauty products
Win Probability: 4%
Summer House, which features attractive people hanging out and hooking up, does nothing to prepare Miller for The Traitors. Anyone coming into this series without competitive reality experience is at a disadvantage.
18. Gabby Windey
Known for: The Bachelor, The Bachelorette
Recently seen on: Dancing with the Stars
Win Probability: 15%
I’m rooting for Gabby, mostly because she was a Denver Broncos cheerleader for five years, and like myself, is from Colorado. However, with the exception of Pilot Pete, Bach contestants haven’t shown much skill on The Traitors.
17. Chrishell Stause
Known for: Selling Sunset
Recently seen on: A cameo on Hot Frosty
Win Probability: 20%
If the former soap star turned real estate agent can use the same competitive drive she has on Selling Sunset to help her in The Traitors, she has a chance. But with no other Netflix stars on the roster, who is she teaming up with?
15 (tied). Dylan Efron and Sam Asghari
Known for: Having a significant relationship with a famous person
Recently seen on: Nothing
Win Probability: 25%
We’ve reached the Claim to Fame portion of this list. While in the business as a TV producer, Dylan Efron (brother of Zac) has no experience on this kind of show. Neither does Sam, whose claim to fame is being the ex-husband of Britney Spears. They won’t be viewed as threats but there are too many ruthless gamers for these newbies to handle.
11 (tied). Chanel Ayan (Dubai), Dolores Catania (New Jersey), Robyn Dixon (Potomac), Dorinda Medley (New York)
Known for: Real Housewives
Recently seen on: A Housewives reunion causing trouble
Win Probability: 45%
Any Housewife is fun to watch on The Traitors. They have a knack for creating drama, it’s in their Bravo-infused DNA. Someone from this group could be the next Phaedra Parks but because Housewives focus more on controversy than strategy and typically do a poor job of sticking together, I don’t see any of them making the finale let alone winning.
10. Bob Harper
Known for: The Biggest Loser
Recently seen on: Commercials for the medication Brilinta. Harper had a heart attack in 2017
Win Probability: 50%
Now to our contenders. I can see Bob, whose skillset is to be a cheerleader for others and focus on the big picture, doing well. If he can bond with non-gamers to work on getting the more competitive people out he could go far.
9. Nikki Garcia
Known for: Retired pro wrestler; Total Divas.
Recently seen on: Twin Love, a dating show she hosted with her twin sister Brie
Win Probability: 55%
John Cena’s former fiancé has the physicality and competitive drive to do well on challenges. And while the chicanery in wrestling is planned, it should still be an asset to Garcia on The Traitors.
8. Lord Ivar Mountbatten
Known for: Being the second cousin of King Charles III
Recently seen on: Harry and Megan’s wedding video
Win Probability: 60%
Say hello to this season’s wildcard. Like most people, I don’t know much about his lordship but the 62-year-old Brit certainly sounds like an interesting gent. He’s a farmer, geologist, businessman, and his 2018 marriage to his partner, James Coyle, was the first same-sex union for the royal family.
7. Tony Vlachos
Known for: Survivor (3x), winner Survivor: Cagayan and Survivor: Winners at War
Recently seen on: Instagram talking trash about his Traitors competition
Win Probability: 65%
Tony is going to make for fantastic TV. I’m already giddy about the creator of the Survivor Spy Shack hiding in a suit of armor or building a secret room opened only by pulling out a book from a bookcase. If there’s a painting on the wall and its eyes are moving, it’s probably Tony. The two-time Survivor winner is sure to be seen as a threat but if Tony can tone down his natural exuberance and pretend to be a team player, he could dominate.
6. Bob the Drag Queen
Known for: RuPaul’s Drag Race; We’re Here.
Recently seen on: A guest spot on Doctor Odyssey playing a drag queen named, and I didn’t make this up, Marsha D’Penguins
Win Probability: 70%
I can see Bob winning The Traitors. They’re competitive, not easily intimidated, intelligent, and have a sense of humor that is sure to charm a lot of people. The only reason Bob isn’t at the top stop of this list is I think gamers will take them out near the end because their threat level is too high.
4 (tied). Britney Haynes and Danielle Reyes
Known for: Big Brother
Recently seen on: Big Brother: Reindeer Games
Win Probability: 75%
One of these two Big Brother legends will go far, the other will go home early. I just can’t figure out which. Britney, who gives great confessionals, will be a blast to watch but she also orchestrated Danielle’s exit in Reindeer Games. Danielle, who’s gameplay has been compared to Survivor contestant and Traitors season one winner Cirie, could be looking for payback. Danielle is also a huge Survivor fan, so if she teams up with former players she’ll be a formidable foe.
3. Carolyn Wiger
Known for: Survivor 44
Recently seen on: Her Let’s Get Tribal podcast gushing over her guest, Survivor villain Russell Hantz
Win Probability: 80%
Carolyn is not a conventional winner’s pick. She’s kooky, emotional, and unpredictable. But if someone can bond with her early and make her feel secure, she’ll be a loyal ally to the end. She’s so zany that no one would ever suspect her of being a traitor, so if she gets tapped for the job she could ride it all the way to a win.
2. Wells Adams
Known for: The Bachelorette, Bachelor in Paradise
Recently seen on: A red carpet with his wife, actress Sarah Hyland
Win Probability: 85%
Yeah, yeah I know. I’m contradicting my earlier comment that Bach contestants don’t do well on The Traitors. I think Wells will be the exception. Charming, bright, and just adorable enough to be non-threateningly cute, Wells will have no problem earning the trust of his castmates. He’s like a puppy in human form. A human puppy who has an 85% chance to be $250,000 richer.
1. Jeremy Collins
Known for: Survivor (3x), winner Survivor: Cambodia
Recently seen on: Survivor five years ago
Win Probability: 90%
This Boston firefighter has the perfect mix of physicality, strategic thinking, and charisma that will see him excel on The Traitors. When looking at this season’s cast, I don’t see anyone Jeremy couldn’t connect with. He’s proven on Survivor that he’s great working with women (Natalie, Tasha, Missy) and strategic players (Spencer, Wendell, Fishbach). He could also use big targets like Tony and Boston Rob as meat shields until they need to be eliminated.
The only things that could slow down Jeremy are other Survivor players who understand how big a threat he is and the rust that comes with his time away from reality TV. But the way I see it, Jeremy has the best chance to win the third season of The Traitors.
The third season of The Traitors premieres with three episodes on January 9 on Peacock. Subsequent episodes release weekly on Thursdays through March 6.
Terry Terrones is a Television Critics Association and Critics Choice Association member, licensed drone pilot, and aspiring hand model. When he’s not marveling at Noah Wyle’s acting chops, you can find him hiking in the mountains of Colorado. You can follow him on Twitter @terryterrones.
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