2025 Grammy Awards: Predicting This Year’s Winners

2025 Grammy Awards: Predicting This Year’s Winners

This Sunday the Grammy Awards will return for the ceremony’s 67th iteration. It’s another year of unpredictability, as some of pop, country and rock’s finest are up against each other for the music industry’s top brass. But, there are also some less-stellar-projects in contention, and some of which may very well spoil the party in two days. Beyoncé, in typical fashion, leads the pack with 11 nominations. It’s an accomplishment that has put her at 99 career nominations, the most all-time. Kendrick Lamar, Post Malone, Charli XCX and Billie Eilish aren’t too far behind with seven noms each. And of course, perennial shoo-in Taylor Swift has six nominations, along with the next generation of stars (and first-time nominees), Sabrina Carpenter and Chappell Roan. And, former Paste cover star St. Vincent came away with four nominations!

This year’s Grammys will broadcast live from Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles at 8 PM ET on CBS and Paramount+ With Showtime. Comedian and political pundit Trevor Noah will host. See below who we believe will take home the most coveted awards on Sunday night. Will Beyoncé take home Album of the Year at long last, or will Taylor continue her decorated reign in the category? And will Charli XCX end her year of Brat with a couple of golden gramophones? Only time will tell.

Record of the Year

The Beatles, “Now and Then”
Beyoncé, “Texas Hold ’Em”
Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather”
Chappell Roan, “Good Luck, Babe!”
Charli XCX, “360”
Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
Sabrina Carpenter, “Espresso”
Taylor Swift ft. Post Malone, “Fortnight”

Who Will Win: Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather”
Who Should Win: Sabrina Carpenter, “Espresso”

Admittedly, this is one of the stronger crops of Record of the Year nominees in recent memory. Billie, Chappell, Charli, Kendrick and Sabrina are all legitimate contenders. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Beatles win for “Now and Then,” but I think Billie takes home the prize. She’s a two-time winner in this category, once for “bad guy” and again for “Everything I Wanted.” And if “Birds of a Feather” does win, it’ll be deservedly. But, who can deny the timelessness of “Espresso”?

Album of the Year

André 3000, New Blue Sun
Beyoncé, Cowboy Carter
Billie Eilish, Hit Me Hard and Soft
Chappell Roan, The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess
Charli XCX, Brat
Jacob Collier, Djesse Vol. 4
Sabrina Carpenter, Short n’ Sweet
Taylor Swift, The Tortured Poets Department

Who Will Win: Taylor Swift, The Tortured Poets Department
Who Should Win: Beyoncé, Cowboy Carter

At this point, betters should never wager against Taylor Swift when it comes to Album of the Year. She’s won the award four times, more than any other artist in history. If she’s nominated, you have to really consider her as the front-runner, even if The Tortured Poets Department is one of her weaker projects. I think the best album here is either Hit Me Hard and Soft or Short n’ Sweet, but it would be nice to finally see Beyoncé win this award, an achievement that has eluded her in even her strongest years. Cowboy Carter is nowhere near the album that Renaissance was, so it would be like Leonardo DiCaprio winning Best Actor for The Revenant, but, hey, Recording Academy, give the greatest artist of this century her flowers, please!

Song of the Year

Beyoncé, “Texas Hold ’Em”
Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather”
Chappell Roan, “Good Luck, Babe!”
Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile”
Sabrina Carpenter, “Please Please Please”
Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)”
Taylor Swift ft. Post Malone, “Fortnight”

Who Will Win: Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
Who Should Win: Sabrina Carpenter, “Please Please Please”

Most publications aren’t considering “Not Like Us” as a contender in this category, but I think we ought to. Sure, maybe “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” and its pop chart accolades, or the pop jubilance of “Birds of a Feather,” have more “industry muscle,” but Kendrick Lamar changed contemporary music forever with “Not Like Us.” A hit song so good it spawned lawsuits? The Recording Academy has historically snubbed Lamar in the past, but maybe they’ll right the ship this time, even if the best song in this category is “Please Please Please,” a song that made it into our end-of-year Top 10 in 2024.

Best New Artist

Benson Boone
Doechii
Chappell Roan
Khruangbin
Raye
Sabrina Carpenter
Shaboozey
Teddy Swims

Who Will Win: Chappell Roan
Who Should Win: Chappell Roan

Sorry to anyone not named Sabrina Carpenter or Chappell Roan, but your nominations are your victories. The two pop darlings are going to be at the top of most ballots, and I think the Midwest Princess edges out the Disney Channel alum this time. But, I would not be surprised if, out of nowhere, Doechii, Raye or Shaboozey’s names get called. It seems doubtful, considering the year Chappell had, but the Recording Academy have never been all that good at making the obvious choice.

Producer of the Year, Non-Classical

Alissia
Dan Nigro
Dernst “D’Mile” Emile II
Ian Fitchuk
Mustard

Who Will Win: Dan Nigro
Who Should Win: Mustard

It’s easy to pick Dan Nigro here, given his work with Olivia Rodrigo and Chappell Roan this year, but I think Mustard could be the spoiler. His production on “Not Like Us” could vault him into a victory. But let’s not forget that Jack Antonoff, who had, arguably, one of his best years of his career (and has won this category three times), was left out of the nominations.

Songwriter of the Year, Non-Classical

Amy Allen
Edgar Barrera
Jessi Alexander
Jessie Jo Dillon
Raye

Who Will Win: Amy Allen
Who Should Win: Amy Allen

This isn’t even close, I don’t think. Amy Allen ruled the pop kingdom from behind the scenes this year (she also released her own debut album, and it was quite good), working with Leon Bridges, Sabrina Carpenter, Tate McRae, Jessie Murph, Olivia Rodrigo and Justin Timberlake. If anyone spoils Amy’s momentum, I guess it’d be Raye. But I think Amy is nearly a lock.

Best Pop Solo Performance

Beyoncé, “Bodyguard”
Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather”
Chappell Roan, “Good Luck, Babe!”
Charli XCX, “Apple
Sabrina Carpenter, “Espresso”

Who Will Win: Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather”
Who Should Win: Sabrina Carpenter, “Espresso”

Best Pop Duo/Group Performance

Ariana Grande, Brandy & Monica, “The Boy Is Mine – Remix”
Beyoncé ft. Post Malone, “Levii’s Jeans”
Charli XCX & Billie Eilish, “Guess Featuring Billie Eilish”
Gracie Abrams ft. Taylor Swift, “Us.”
Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile”

Who Will Win: Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile”
Who Should Win: Charli XCX & Billie Eilish, “Guess”

Charli and Billie should take this award home, but they won’t. The Grammys love Gaga and they love Bruno. It feels like a collaboration that’s too industry-pilled to walk home empty-handed.

Best Pop Vocal Album

Ariana Grande, Eternal Sunshine
Billie Eilish, Hit Me Hard and Soft
Chappell Roan, The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess
Sabrina Carpenter, Short n’ Sweet
Taylor Swift, The Tortured Poets Department

Who Will Win: Taylor Swift, The Tortured Poets Department
Who Should Win: Sabrina Carpenter, Short n’ Sweet

Just like how Best Editing and Best Picture go hand-in-hand, I think, if Taylor wins Album of the Year, she’s gotta win Best Pop Vocal Album, too. I’m not sure it’s a lock, though. Billie or Ariana could be a spoiler, but if I’m rooting for an upset, it’s by way of Sabrina.

Best Dance/Electronic Recording

Disclosure, “She’s Gone, Dance On
Four Tet, “Loved
Fred Again.. & Baby Keem, “Leavemealone
Justice & Tame Impala, “Neverender
Kaytranada ft. Childish Gambino, “Witchy”

Who Will Win: Disclosure, “She’s Gone, Dance On”
Who Should Win: Four Tet, “Loved”

Best Dance Pop Recording

Ariana Grande, “Yes, And?”
Billie Eilish, “L’Amour de Ma Vie [Over Now Extended Edit]”
Charli XCX, “Von Dutch”
Madison Beer, “Make You Mine”
Troye Sivan, “Got Me Started”

Who Will Win: Charli XCX, “Von dutch”
Who Should Win: Charli XCX, “Von dutch”

If Charli is going to win a Grammy, and she should, it will be here. “Von dutch” was inescapable and, even with Brat Summer long over, it’s more than deserving of the acclaim.

Best Dance/Electronic Album

Charli XCX, Brat
Four Tet, Three
Justice, Hyperdrama
Kaytranada, Timeless
Zedd, Telos

Who Will Win: Charli XCX, Brat
Who Should Win: Charli XCX, Brat

Charli should definitely win this award. But, please, anything but that Justice record!

Best Rock Performance

The Beatles, “Now and Then”
The Black Keys, “Beautiful People (Stay High)”
Green Day, “The American Dream Is Killing Me”
IDLES, “Gift Horse”
Pearl Jam, “Dark Matter”
St. Vincent, “Broken Man”

Who Will Win: St. Vincent, “Broken Man”
Who Should Win: The Beatles, “Now and Then”

Putting St. Vincent up against a bunch of washed-up, corny or broken-up bands is a wild sight. No song on this list is as good as “Broken Man,” but giving “Now and Then” this award would be a feel-good story I wouldn’t mind seeing happen. The Recording Academy loves giving old-timers wins like this, and it could happen a few times on Sunday.

Best Rock Song

The Black Keys, “Beautiful People (Stay High)”
Green Day, “Dilemma”
IDLES, “Gift Horse”
Pearl Jam, “Dark Matter”
St. Vincent, “Broken Man”

Who Will Win: St. Vincent, “Broken Man”
Who Should Win: St. Vincent, “Broken Man”

Best Rock Song is a verbatim copy of Best Rock Performance, except that there’s no Beatles. St. Vincent blows everyone else in this category out of the water, but I wouldn’t be shocked if, miraculously, Pearl Jam or Green Day snag a win here. I hope not, but, remember, this is the Grammy Awards we’re talking about.

Best Rock Album

The Black Crowes, Happiness Bastards
Fontaines D.C., Romance
Green Day, Saviors
IDLES, Tangk
Jack White, No Name
Pearl Jam, Dark Matter
The Rolling Stones, Hackney Diamonds

Who Will Win: The Rolling Stones, Hackney Diamonds
Who Should Win: Fontaines D.C., Romance

Someone joked on X that this category is a rock ‘n’ roll nursing home, and they’re right. You’ve got one fantastic album (Romance), one career-defining album (No Name), one late-career triumph (Hackney Diamonds) and four other records that nobody has thought about once since they came out. I liked the Stones’ album quite a bit, and I think it will win, but Romance is the best record here. It’s not even close.

Best Alternative Music Performance

Cage the Elephant, “Neon Pill”
Fontaines D.C., “Starburster”
Kim Gordon, “Bye Bye”
Nick Cave & the Bad Seeds, “Song of the Lake”
St. Vincent, “Flea”

Who Will Win: Cage the Elephant, “Neon Pill”
Who Should Win: Kim Gordon, “BYE BYE”

Obviously, I’d love to see Fontaines D.C. take this award home, but Cage the Elephant has the worst song here and that feels like something the Academy might reward. They’re a band that wins rock Grammys a lot, and this just feels like an industry move. I’m rooting for Kim Gordon to get her flowers, though. “BYE BYE” is a great track. “Flea” would be a good winner, too. That Nick Cave song is pretty awesome, as well. It’s a good category! But it’s a shame that the worst offender in it could win the whole enchilada.

Best Alternative Music Album

Brittany Howard, What Now
Clairo, Charm
Kim Gordon, The Collective
Nick Cave & the Bad Seeds, Wild God
St. Vincent, All Born Screaming

Who Will Win: St. Vincent, All Born Screaming
Who Should Win: Clairo, Charm

I think St. Vincent mostly cleans up in these categories, including this one, but don’t be surprised if Brittany Howard pulls off an upset. I don’t think Charm is an alternative album, but it’s nominated as one, and I think it’s the best album here.

Best R&B Performance

Chris Brown, “Residuals”
Coco Jones, “Here We Go (Uh Oh)”
Jhené Aiko, “Guidance”
Muni Long, “Made for Me (Live on BET)”
SZA, “Saturn”

Who Will Win: SZA, “Saturn”
Who Should Win: SZA, “Saturn”

Best Progressive R&B Album

Avery*Sunshine, So Glad to Know You
Childish Gambino, Bando Stone and the New World
Durand Bernarr, En Route
Kehlani, Crash
NxWorries, Why Lawd?

Who Will Win: Kehlani, Crash
Who Should Win: NxWorries, Why Lawd?

Best Rap Performance

Cardi B, “Enough (Miami)”
Common & Pete Rock ft. Posdnuos, “When the Sun Shines Again”
Doechii, “Nissan Altima”
Eminem, “Houdini”
Future, Metro Boomin & Kendrick Lamar, “Like That”
Glorilla, “Yeah Glo!”
Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”

Who Will Win: Future & Metro Boomin ft. Kendrick Lamar, “Like That”
Who Should Win: Doechii, “Nissan Altima”

Give Doechii a Grammy!! “Not Like Us” feels like a solid candidate here, but I really am thinking that Kendrick wins the category thanks to his performance with Metro Boomin and Future on “Like That.” Honestly, I just don’t want to see “Houdini” win.

Best Melodic Rap Performance

Beyoncé, Linda Martell & Shaboozey, “Spaghettii”
Future, Metro Boomin & The Weeknd, “We Still Don’t Trust You”
Jordan Adetunji ft. Kehlani, “Kehlani (Remix)”
Latto, “Big Mama”
Rapsody ft. Erykah Badu, “3:AM”

Who Will Win: Beyoncé ft. Linda Martell & Shaboozey, “SPAGHETII”
Who Should Win: Rapsody ft. Erykah Badu, “3:AM”

“3:AM” was one of the best songs of 2024, period.

Best Rap Song

Future, Metro Boomin & Kendrick Lamar, “Like That”
Glorilla, “Yeah Glo!”
Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
Rapsody & Hit-Boy, “Asteroids”
¥$, Kanye West, Ty Dolla $ign & Rich the Kid ft. Playboi Carti, “Carnival”

Who Will Win: Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
Who Should Win: Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”

This is the only no-doubter of the whole ceremony. “Not Like Us” takes this home without question.

Best Rap Album

Common & Pete Rock, The Auditorium Vol. 1
Doechii, Alligator Bites Never Heal
Eminem, The Death of Slim Shady (Coup de Grâce)
Future & Metro Boomin, We Don’t Trust You
J. Cole, Might Delete Later

Who Will Win: Future & Metro Boomin, We Don’t Trust You
Who Should Win: Doechii, Alligator Bites Never Heal

I think the race between Future & Metro Boomin and Doechii is closer than you’d think. I’m pulling for Doechii, but, realistically, the Recording Academy hates giving this award to women, so history points to a Future or Eminem win, sadly.

Best Country Solo Performance

Beyoncé, “16 Carriages”
Chris Stapleton, “It Takes a Woman”
Jelly Roll, “I Am Not Okay”
Kacey Musgraves, “The Architect”
Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)”

Who Will Win: Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)”
Who Should Win: Beyoncé, “16 Carriages”

The longest-charting song of 2024 will not walk out of the ceremony without a victory of some kind, and I think Shaboozey gets it here. But, “16 Carriages” is the superior song. I honestly don’t know which way the Grammys will lean.

Best Country Duo/Group Performance

Beyoncé & Miley Cyrus, “II Most Wanted”
Brothers Osborne, “Break Mine”
Dan + Shay, “Bigger Houses”
Kelsea Ballerini & Noah Kahan, “Cowboys Cry Too”
Post Malone ft. Morgan Wallen, “I Had Some Help”

Who Will Win: Beyoncé ft. Miley Cyrus: “II Most Wanted”
Who Should Win: Beyoncé ft. Miley Cyrus: “II Most Wanted”

I’m pulling for Bey and Miley here, but, if I’m being completely honest with myself, there is a world where Post Malone and Morgan Wallen win this award.

Best Country Song

Beyoncé, “Texas Hold ’Em”
Jelly Roll, “I Am Not Okay”
Kacey Musgraves, “The Architect”
Post Malone ft. Morgan Wallen, “I Had Some Help”
Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)”

Who Will Win: Beyoncé, “Texas Hold ‘Em”
Who Should Win: Kacey Musgraves, “The Architect”

“Texas Hold ‘Em” is not a good song, but that won’t stop the Grammys from giving it this award. “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” wouldn’t be a bad pick, but “The Architect” is the best option out of this bunch.

Best Country Album

Beyoncé, Cowboy Carter
Chris Stapleton, Higher
Kacey Musgraves, Deeper Well
Lainey Wilson, Whirlwind
Post Malone, F-1 Trillion

Who Will Win: Beyoncé, Cowboy Carter
Who Should Win: Beyoncé, Cowboy Carter

Beyoncé is likely going to win a genre album award but lose Album of the Year. It wouldn’t be the first time and it probably won’t be the last.

Best American Roots Performance

The Fabulous Thunderbirds ft. Bonnie Raitt, Keb’ Mo’, Taj Mahal & Mick Fleetwood, “Nothing in Rambling”
Rhiannon Giddens, “The Ballad of Sally Anne”
Shemekia Copeland, “Blame It on Eve”
Sierra Ferrell, “Lighthouse”

Who Will Win: The Fabulous Thunderbirds ft. Bonnie Raitt, Keb’ Mo, Taj Mahal & Mick Fleetwood, “Nothing in Rambling”
Who Should Win: Sierra Ferrell, “Lighthouse”

Best Americana Performance

Gillian Welch & David Rawlings, “Empty Trainload of Sky”
Madi Diaz & Kacey Musgraves, Don’t Do Me Good”
Madison Cunningham, “Subtitles”
Sarah Jarosz, “Runaway Train”
Sierra Ferrell, “American Dreaming”

Who Will Win: Sarah Jarosz, “Runaway Train”
Who Should Win: Gillian Welch & David Rawlings, “Empty Trainload of Sky”

Best American Roots Song

Aoife O’Donovan, “All My Friends”
Iron & Wine & Fiona Apple, “All in Good Time”
Mark Knopfler, “Ahead of the Game”
Shemekia Copeland, “Blame It on Eve”
Sierra Ferrell, “American Dreaming”

Who Will Win: Sierra Ferrell, “American Dreaming”
Who Should Win: Iron & Wine ft. Fiona Apple, “All in Good Time”

Best Americana Album

Charley Crockett, $10 Cowboy
Maggie Rose, No One Gets Out Alive
Sarah Jarosz, Polaroid Lovers
Sierra Ferrell, Trail of Flowers
T Bone Burnett, The Other Side
Waxahatchee, Tigers Blood

Who Will Win: Sarah Jarosz, Polaroid Lovers
Who Should Win: Waxahatchee, Tigers Blood

All of us here at Paste are pulling for Waxahatchee to win this damn thing. But it’s a good category overall, and Charley, Sarah and Sierra all made really wonderful records. Tigers Blood, however, was among the very best releases that 2024 had to offer. We’re Katie Crutchfield fans for life.

Best Folk Album

Adrianne Lenker, Bright Future
American Patchwork Quartet, American Patchwork Quartet
Aoife O’Donovan, All My Friends
Gillian Welch & David Rawlings, Woodland
Madi Diaz, Weird Faith

Who Will Win: Gillian Welch & David Rawlings, Woodland
Who Should Win: Adrianne Lenker, Bright Future

Considering that both Woodland and Bright Future were near the top of our year-end albums list last year, I’d be happy with either of them winning this category. Madi Diaz would be a good winner, too.

Best Música Urbana Album

Bad Bunny, Nadie Sabe Lo Que Va a Pasar Mañana
Feid, Ferxxocalipsis
J Balvin, Rayo
Residente, Las Letras Ya No Importan
Young Miko, Att.

Who Will Win: Bad Bunny, Nadie Sabe lo Que Va a Para Mañana
Who Should Win: Bad Bunny, Nadie Sabe lo Que Va a Para Mañana

Best Score Soundtrack for Visual Media (Film and Television)

Kris Bowers, The Color Purple
Hans Zimmer, Dune: Part Two
Laura Karpman, American Fiction
Nick Chuba, Atticus Ross & Leopold Ross, Shōgun
Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross, Challengers

Who Will Win: Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross, Challengers
Who Should Win: Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross, Challengers

The Grammys have a chance to right the wrongs of the Oscars by giving Challengers the win for Best Score that it deserves.

 
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