Donald Trump is Leading in Two Recent National Polls, Which Hasn't Happened Since July

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This, from Real Clear Politics, is…disconcerting:

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My computer screen isn’t big enough to show the last national poll Trump won, but if you go about ten spots down, you see it: The post-convention bounce polls that sent us all into a panic in late July.

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The hopeful conclusion, drawn by those who fear a Trump presidency, was that aside from a small uptick after the GOP convention, Trump’s fun was over, and Clinton would increase her lead inexorably before prevailing easily in November. Running contrary to this narrative is a new poll from CNN/ORC, which puts Trump two points ahead of Clinton among likely voters. That’s the second recent poll to have him ahead—Rasmussen gave Trump a one-point edge in a poll released last Thursday, and IBD/TIPP poll had the two in a dead heat.

Those three results broke a 35-poll win streak for Clinton, as tallied by Real Clear Politics, with the peak coming in early August, when she enjoyed a 7.6-point lead in an average of all polls. As you can see in the image below from the front page of today’s Politico, this belies certain ready-made media narratives:


Clinton is still the favorite to win the general election by every metric, but the gap is once again narrowing, which is worrisome for those who hoped the race might be over. Based on recent results, it’s probably reasonable to expect the polls to continue tightening at least until the first presidential debate on Sep. 26.

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