New Polls in Texas and Nevada Bring More Good News for Bernie Sanders

Two new polls emerged today that seem to indicate Bernie Sanders has maintained his momentum after the New Hampshire primary and looks to be the clear frontrunner. The first and most important in the short term comes from Nevada, which hasn’t been polled since Iowa. There, for the first time since last August, Sanders holds a lead over Biden:

Las Vegas Review-Journal/WPA Nevada poll (conducted Tuesday through Thursday – so not all post-NH)
Sanders 25%
Biden 18%
Warren 13%
Steyer 11%
Buttigieg 10%
Klobuchar 10%https://t.co/gfX7ZgVqTl
— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) February 14, 2020

The Nevada caucus is the next on the calendar, happening a week from this Saturday, and while it’s not quite a “must-win” for Sanders, it is the first state with a strong minority population, and in order to make good on recent polling that shows strength with Hispanic voters, a win is the closest thing to necessary. More than a few candidates have been insisting that the primary is “fluid,” and based on fluctuations pre-Iowa, they’re been right. At this point, though, Sanders doesn’t want anymore fluidity, and winning Nevada would cement the idea that he’s more than an early primary flash-in-the-pan.

The more surprising poll, and the one that might pay the biggest dividends in the long term, comes from Texas:

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New UT/@TexasTribune poll of Texas primary:
Sanders: 24%
Biden: 22
Warren: 15
Bloomberg: 10
Buttigieg: 7
Yang: 6
Klobuchar: 3
Steyer: 3
Gabbard: 2
Others: 8
MOE: +/- 4.09%https://t.co/lTr57VUVVa
— Patrick Svitek (@PatrickSvitek) February 14, 2020

This is a dramatic reversal from the last Texas poll, and every poll that came before it. Just before the Iowa caucuses, a Dallas Morning News poll showed Biden with a 16-point lead, and though results from earlier in 2019 varied, none showed Biden trailing. This is the first time Bernie had led in delegate-rich Texas, and considering the fact that he leads in the other biggest Super Tuesday state, California, things are starting to look very good for him. It’s clear, too, that Biden’s poor showing in Iowa and New Hampshire has reverberated throughout the country.

The other factor in his favor is viability—if other candidates can’t reach 15% within congressional districts or statewide, Sanders could win modest victories in both states and collect huge amounts of delegates if the rest of the vote is split.