The Donald Trump Inevitability Watch, May 10: Bad Polls in Bad States

This is the first installment of a new feature that we may or may not be repeating on a daily, or weekly, or monthly basis between now and the election: The Donald Trump Inevitability Watch!

Since the start of his successful GOP primary campaign, we’ve heard nothing but promises that he wasn’t serious, or that his candidacy was a joke, or that he would lose imminently. Hell, we’ve even made a few of those promises ourselves Instead, he keeps winning, and he keeps gaining strength. Every single profound speech that was supposed to end this insanity for good has only increased his lead, and every proclamation of weakness—”he can’t get over 50 percent in any state!” or “he won’t get enough delegates to avoid a convention fight!”—have been proven wrong. Spectacularly wrong. And the Drumpf marches on.

It all leads to one conclusion: Donald Trump is inevitable. If you look at the trajectories of the likely nominees, the story gets even worse. Hillary Clinton’s poll numbers have steadily dwindled, even among Democrats, while Trump just grows and grows. If that trend continues over the next few months, he won’t just win the presidential election—he’ll win easily.

So let’s keep tabs on his inevitable march to D.C as the political season rages toward November, and document the path of an unstoppable force as it plows through a series of very movable objects.

In today’s installment, we’re listing the Trump Inevitability Risk as “Medium-High” after a series of polls that shows him in a dead heat with Hillary Clinton—who he can’t possibly beat, and who he’ll inevitably trounce—in three very important battleground states.

In Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio—three states Barack Obama won in both 2008 and 2012—new Quinnipiac polls show that things are neck-and-neck between Trump and Clinton. The percentages:

Florida: Clinton 43, Trump 42
Ohio: Trump 43, Clinton 39
Pennsylvania: Clinton 43, Trump 42

Well, that’s not good! Or, in the words of Modest Mouse, this is good news for people who love bad news. In any case, this is the closest Trump has been to Clinton yet, and again, when we consider the relative momentum of each campaign, this is not a good sign for the future.

For what it’s worth—not much—Bernie Sanders beats Trump in all three states, and his margin in Florida and Pennsylvania is higher than Clinton’s. But that ship has very nearly sailed, so the Trump Inevitability Watch goes on.