The Final Polls in Nevada Show Bernie Sanders Holding His Lead After the Debate

The Nevada caucuses happen on Saturday, and two final polls show Bernie Sanders holding onto his commanding lead, and reinforcing the narrative that the real contest is for second place. The first comes from KLAS-TV Emerson, which shows Sanders with a 30% plurality, leading all comers by 13:

Nevada 2020: Sanders with Comfortable Lead Heading into Caucus, Tight Race for Second Place #FridayThoughtshttps://t.co/Ue2HNkd0ZR

— NCNative (@NCBerniecrat) February 21, 2020

Interestingly, Warren sits at 12 percent in that poll, below the viability threshold, even though part of that poll was taken after Wednesday’s debate, when the broad perception was that Warren had a strong performance.

The second poll, which also includes post-debate responses, comes from Data for Progress, and shows Sanders with an even larger lead:

Data for Progress – Nevada Caucus Poll
Sanders – 35
Warren – 16
Buttigieg – 15
Biden – 14

766 likely caucus goers, text to web, 2/12/20 – 2/15/20https://t.co/5CRchqzOue

— Data for Progress (@DataProgress) February 17, 2020

That poll also shows Sanders with a wide lead among Latino voters:

Hispanic or Latino/a support in Nevada, via new Data For Progress poll:

Sanders 66%
Steyer 8%
Biden 7%
Klobuchar 7%
Warren 5%
Buttigieg 4%https://t.co/H0g4NsnFwo

— Matt Karp (@karpmj) February 18, 2020

As to Warren, there’s an interesting phenomenon at play in which her performance seemed to hit Bloomberg quite hard, but didn’t result in a measurable uptick in her support.

It’s unclear whether the Review-Journal or any other body will release a final poll today, but this post will be updated if they do. One interesting tidbit from the last Review-Journal poll is that 58 percent of respondees said they planned to vote early, meaning the debate may have come too late to have a big effect one way or another.

Update, 5:47 p.m.: A last poll paints an even rosier picture for Sanders:

New Nevada poll from AtlasIntel. Not rated by 538. Conducted Feb19-21:@BernieSanders – 38%@PeteButtigieg – 14%@TomSteyer – 11%@JoeBiden – 11%@ewarren – 9%@amyklobuchar – 5%@TulsiGabbard – 3%

Seems too good to be true for Bernie in my opinion.https://t.co/AHkamQsYdQ

— Douglas Patch (@DouglasPatch) February 21, 2020