Meet a Competitive House Race: New Jersey 7th (Leonard Lance vs. Tom Malinowski, Most Likely)
Photo by Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty
Welcome to “Meet a Competitive House Race,” a Paste feature in which we highlight—you guessed it—a competitive 2018 House race from somewhere in America. Between now and election day, we’ll hopefully hit them all. You can see a full list of other House races we’ve profiled at the bottom of this page.
What’s the deal with today’s district? Where is it?
New Jersey’s 7th district is a large district in the northwest part of New Jersey that includes the counties Essex, Hunterdon, Morris, Somerset, Union and Warren. The major cities include Lambertville and Summit.
Who the hell lives there? How do they vote?
The district is primarily white at 74.5 percent, followed by 11.3 percent Hispanic and 8.3 Asian. Most of the population is U.S.-born at 81.6 percent. The district is split between blue and red states, with no pivot states. It sits in a state that is historically blue and has voted for the Democratic presidential candidate since 2000, from Al Gore to Hillary Clinton. According to the 2018 Cook Partisan Voter Index, this district is R+3 in the past two presidential elections. This means the district is three points more Republican than the national average, despite it being in a completely blue state. The district has a clump of red counties next to its blue counties, which divide the votes and have ultimately kept conservative Leonard Lance in office.
Is the anti-Trump effect going to screw the Republican?
Based on how this district voted in the 2016 presidential election, probably.
Give me some more background
This extremely conservative district voted for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election, which is more than strange. Despite comments in 2012 that Lance is not conservative enough, the district must have harshly disagreed with Trump’s platform in order to vote for a Democrat instead. Lance has done a pretty good job of distancing himself from all of Trump’s rampages and absurdities, especially when it comes to health care. However, at the moment the district seems to be leaning left and away from all of the Republican shenanigans in the Trump administration.
What’s up with the Republican(s)?
Leonard Lance was first elected in 2008 and has clung on to the seat since then. He previously served in the New Jersey General Assembly and the New Jersey State Senate. In the past, Lance has been criticized by other Republicans, such as his primary opponent David Larson in 2012, for not being conservative enough. According to BallotPedia, Larson said that Lance was one of those politicians who “call themselves conservatives, but support the Obama agenda.” However, Lance fought back by pointing to his voting record, specifically those that went against Obamacare. Despite his efforts to make himself seem like a full-on conservative in the Trump administration recently, he voted against Trump’s American Health Care Act which reformed Obamacare.
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