Why Are You the One? Is the Best, Most Hopeful Reality Show on TV
MTV
Humanity is messy. If sci-fi—the many Invasion of the Body Snatchers films, for example—has taught us anything, to be human is to be strange, emotional, jealous, gross and horny. It’s why reality shows appeal to us. They’re us at our most, well, us. Dramas that are too overwritten grate on our sense of humanity. People don’t talk like that.
MTV’s Are You the One? (henceforth known as AYTO) exists at the conflicted crossroads between our utmost humanity and a technological myth that would hope to tame it. The series combines the trashy joy of watching drunken sub-Bachelor contestants (in terms of looks, professionalism and desperation) traverse a highly constructed hookup environment with the tactical joys and theorizing of Survivor.
A matchmaking experiment whose contestants are introduced not with application videos showcasing their talents at survival or social grace but with their terrible dating history, AYTO (allegedly) uses personality tests, interviews, and a mysterious algorithm to determine which of the eleven guys and eleven girls are perfect matches for each other. They have 10 weeks living in the same house to figure out whose matches are whose. If they can match up correctly, they win the prize of one million dollars. Well, total.
These 21- to 24-year-old contestants (nobody older, per the contestant application website) can look forward to the much more modest sum of $35,000 each. In previous seasons, it’s been ten guys and ten girls (or ten guys and eleven girls, with one girl having two “perfect matches” for additional drama), but in the current fifth season the contestants must match up an additional couple in their ten weeks.
Aside from a lower likelihood of the contestants stumbling upon their matches by solely following their libido, the fifth season introduces a few other new features that make the dual draws of the game even more complex: If the crew “blacks out”—gets zero matches correct at the end of an episode—their prize money is halved (rather than reduced by $250,000 as in previous seasons); and the contestants can trade information (a confirmed or denied match in the Truth Booth, which we’ll talk about later) for additional prize money, though it makes the game harder to win.
With these additional speed bumps, this season seems like it’ll focus on the greed and statistical savvy of a bunch of drunk 23-year-olds fighting their knack for infatuation, embroiling the show’s most despicable and entertaining aspects in combat.
But it’s possible to beat.
Real (smart) people have used real probabilities to solve AYTO’s mathematical orgy. There’s a logic here: “Mastermind meets Temptation Island,” as The Daily Beast’s Brandy Zadrozny puts it. There are 3,628,800 possible combinations for the winning lineup (yay, factorials!), but the guy who has his finger on the pulse of the problem is 22-year-old MIT grad Nick Uhlenhuth, who updates AYTO’s Wikipedia page each week with the odds of each member in the house being somebody else’s perfect match.
He’s created an algorithm to track match possibilities, confirmations, and rejections into one probability-producing table. You can find his work on Wikipedia or at GitHub.
It’s not like the people on the show are invested in solving this quandary, or even able to do so. For starters, they have no pens, papers, computers, or phones in the house. There are no grids that can be drawn. Which is fine, because nothing’s worse than watching people work out a math problem.
What they lack in personal technology they make up for in alcohol. Host Ryan Devlin has said that alcohol is always available and recommended by the show. A Season Two contestant admitted that for ten weeks she “didn’t go a single day without having at least one [alcoholic] beverage.” It’s a cultural wasteland, a prison of sex and debauchery. That’s the kind of environment that leads to something like marriage talks only a few weeks into a reality show. Our ideas of time and how it maps to relationship progress fade away in the AYTO house. Doubling down is easy; moving on is hard. As Devlin continued, breakups are crushing in the house because “the wounds don’t have a chance to heal. You see that person immediately and all the time, then eventually hooking up with someone else.”