Iowa’s Last Poll Shows Bernie with a 7-Point Lead

Sunday, Emerson College and local news channel 7 News Iowa published a final, pre-caucus Iowa poll indicating that Bernie Sanders has a solid lead over his fellow Democratic candidates. At 28%, he polled 7% higher than Joe Biden and 15% higher than Pete Buttigieg, who noticeably gave a lukewarm debate performance. Most outlets, from The Washington Post to Fox News, cited Buttigieg as one of the lowest performers.

The poll’s pool was composed of “likely Democratic Caucus-goers,” and showed that 66% definitely plan to vote for their chosen candidate. 74% of those who voted for Sanders noted they are solid in their choice for him, with 69% of Buttigieg voters just behind.

The Civiqs poll showed similar results. From a survey collected from 615 likely Caucus-goers, 28% said Sanders would be their first choice, with 21% saying Elizabeth Warren coming in second. This represents a seven-point lead, much like the Emerson College and 7 News Iowa poll. Warren notably polled highest on “second choice” at 19%—if Sanders’ campaign somehow goes awry, will his pool go in for her? Funny enough, poor Tulsi Gabbard took the prize for a question on who those polled would never vote for, coming in at 29%. Joe Biden was in second at 18%. 61% in the Civiqs poll reported they had made up their mind on their candidate of choice.

The Iowa caucus kicks off today, Feb. 3. Will Sanders receive a big win tonight? It could set the momentum for the rest of his campaign if so. Final results are expected to come in at 8:45 p.m. ET, with some room for variance.