After the Academy Awards ceremony calmed down from 2022’s slap-happy mess to a completely dull affair last year, it’s now time for our 2024 Oscar preview. Last year’s onslaught of Disney trailers (Disney-owned ABC airs the show) and complete dominance of Everything Everywhere All At Once was pleasantly broken up by a few genuinely affecting speeches and milestone wins. As we head towards the end of an awards season dominated by Barbie, Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon, it doesn’t seem like an unexpected sweep is coming. If anything, it would be unexpected if smaller movies like May December, Past Lives or Godzilla: Minus One managed to cut through the intense campaigning that has seemed more overwhelming than ever in the wake of the relative marketing quiet brought by last year’s strikes. As is often the case, it’s a matter of which Big Movie wins which Big Category—if Christopher Nolan’s well-loved biopic will overcome a late-career masterpiece from Martin Scorsese; if Bella Baxter or Barbie is the feminism-adjacent creation of the year; if a well-performed courtroom procedural will lose ground to a harrowing Holocaust film focused on the day-to-day procedure of those perpetrating it. That all said, those movies are actually (mostly) pretty good this year. Our 2024 Oscar preview has assessed the winners of awards season so far and is here with plenty of intel, both for who will win and who should.
Now, we’ve already written extensively about the best movies of 2023 and the best entries falling into specific categories ranging from comedy, sci-fi, action and horror to documentary, animation and movies from outside the U.S. But for those movies particularly singled out for this year’s awards, we’ll go a little deeper. This isn’t just mourning the snubbing of more deserving performers (like those critiquing actors in May December) for the sake of Nyad or the shutout of excellent queer films (like All of Us Strangers and Passages), but digging into the major categories like we do every year in order to highlight the discrepancy (or rare correlation) between what the Academy chooses to nod towards and what it actually names its winner.
Like any awards ceremony, there are flaws in both content and structure, but by analyzing both (as we partake in the madness alongside everyone else in the movie world) hopefully everyone can be a little more thoughtful when judging a movie based on how many gold statues a bunch of old white folks gave it a few decades back.
Here’s how to stream the 2024 Oscar nominees, and make sure you watch those short films! If you’re looking for more, check out some of our writing on the 2024 Oscar nominees and the best movies of the year:
- Killers of the Flower Moon Isn’t for an Indigenous Audience. It’s for the Wolves by Jacob Oller
- Barbie Rejects the Patriarchy like a True Lesbian Icon by Anna Govert
- Poor Things Showcases an Emma Stone Tour de Force by Tara Bennett
- Falling Apart with The Boy and the Heron by Jacob Oller
- Anatomy of a Fall and the Stories We Tell by Ursula Muñoz S.
- Selective Processing Is Oppenheimer’s Secret Weapon by Rory Doherty
Here’s our 2024 Oscar preview—who will win, and who should:
Original Screenplay
Nominated:
Anatomy of a Fall (Justine Triet and Arthur Harari)
The Holdovers (David Hemingson)
Maestro (Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer)
May December (Samy Burch)
Past Lives (Celine Song)
Who Will Win: May December (Samy Burch)
The screenplay awards are always where the Oscars like to throw a bone to the movies that they actually, secretly hate. Movies like May December, which has the gall to critique acting in hilarious, insightful, poignant ways. It may be a bit of a far-fetched guess for this nomination to actually win, but it’s also such a classic example of an awards phenomenon that I can’t not pick it. Besides, anyone who includes the parenthetical “(has literally never had a hot dog)” in their script is extremely deserving.
Who Should Win: Past Lives (Celine Song)
I admire many of these screenplays, but Song’s tight balancing act deeply impressed me when I first saw Past Lives. Not only does she clearly communicate a complex relationship evolving over time, but complicates it at just the right moment and in just the right way. Her framing device is clever, her jokes are punchy without being flashy, her love burns low and slow. All this, plus a keen sense for what parts of conversations to omit during the start or end of scenes, keeps the movie’s observational element elegant, realistic and all the more affecting.
Adapted Screenplay
Nominated:
American Fiction (Cord Jefferson)
Barbie (Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach)
Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
Poor Things (Tony McNamara)
The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)
Who Will Win: Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
Who Should Win: Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
Who Would Technically Qualify For This Award If It Was Any Good: Cocaine Bear, loosely based on a real bear (and real cocaine)
Supporting Actress
Nominated:
Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
America Ferrera (Barbie)
Jodie Foster (Nyad)
Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
Who Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
Who Should Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
It’s a tough category this year. None of these performances are particularly good, though Da’Vine Joy Randolph’s performance stands out for turning an unforgiving role into something with a lot of life. America Ferrara, also stuck with an unforgiving role, is the flip side of that coin. Jodie Foster was in Nyad, a real movie. She is Supporting because she does not play Nyad.
Costume Design
Nominated:
Barbie (Jacqueline Durran)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Jacqueline West)
Napoleon (Janty Yates and Dave Crossman)
Oppenheimer (Ellen Mirojnick)
Poor Things (Holly Waddington)
Who Will Win: Poor Things (Holly Waddington)
Though I was equally impressed with the work done in Poor Things and Killers of the Flower Moon (Napoleon and Oppenheimer both had big hats, I suppose), the Costume Designers Guild picked the big, bold steampunk stylings of the former.
Who Should Win: Poor Things (Holly Waddington)
Production Design
Nominated:
Barbie (Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis)
Napoleon (Production Design: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Elli Griff)
Oppenheimer (Production Design: Ruth De Jong; Set Decoration: Claire Kaufman)
Poor Things (Production Design: James Price and Shona Heath; Set Decoration: Zsuzsa Mihalek)
Who Will Win: Poor Things (Production Design: James Price and Shona Heath; Set Decoration: Zsuzsa Mihalek)
Who Should Win: Barbie (Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer)
The Oscars Are Clearly Tired of Wes Anderson Award Goes To: Asteroid City
Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominated:
Golda (Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby and Ashra Kelly-Blue)
Maestro (Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell)
Oppenheimer (Luisa Abel)
Poor Things (Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston)
Society of the Snow (Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí and Montse Ribé)
Who Will Win: Maestro (Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell)
This is the category I’m most cynical about, the one that always seems to go to the biggest transformation no matter what. No matter how it looks, what purpose it serves, nothing. Bradley Cooper got warped into Leonard Bernstein, and his endless hours in the chair will likely be awarded — here, if nowhere else.
Who Should Win: Poor Things (Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston)
Cinematography
Nominated:
El Conde (Edward Lachman)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Rodrigo Prieto)
Maestro (Matthew Libatique)
Oppenheimer (Hoyte van Hoytema)
Poor Things (Robbie Ryan)
Who Will Win: Oppenheimer (Hoyte van Hoytema)
Who Should Win: Oppenheimer (Hoyte van Hoytema)
You Should Know This Thing That Rules: The newsreel footage from Killers of a Flower Moon was shot on Martin Scorsese’s hand-cranked Bell & Howell camera from 1917. Hell yeah.
Film Editing
Nominated:
Anatomy of a Fall (Laurent Sénéchal)
The Holdovers (Kevin Tent)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Thelma Schoonmaker)
Oppenheimer (Jennifer Lame)
Poor Things (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)
Who Will Win: Oppenheimer (Jennifer Lame)
Who Should Win: Killers of the Flower Moon (Thelma Schoonmaker)
Thelma Schoonmaker’s tight, always inventive hand keeps the long runtime of Scorsese’s epic zipping along, filled with punchlines and dramatic impact earned from abrupt cuts and changes in tempo.
Sound
Nominated:
The Creator (Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic)
Maestro (Steven A. Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic)
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor)
Oppenheimer (Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O’Connell)
The Zone of Interest (Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn)
Who Will Win: Oppenheimer (Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O’Connell)
Who Should Win: The Zone of Interest (Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn)
Visual Effects
Nominated:
The Creator (Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts and Neil Corbould)
Godzilla: Minus One (Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima)
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams and Theo Bialek)
Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning, Part One (Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland and Neil Corbould)
Napoleon (Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco and Neil Corbould)
Who Will Win: The Creator (Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts and Neil Corbould)
Who Should Win: Godzilla: Minus One (Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima)
I have a very hard time getting my hopes up that this spectacular Godzilla movie, made with a relatively tiny budget, will beat out all this Hollywood fare — especially since The Creator has built its reputation on being a great-looking piece of original sci-fi that helped filmmaker Gareth Edwards get the new Jurassic Park gig. But wow, has Godzilla rarely looked better.
Short Film (Animated)
Nominated:
Letter to a Pig
Ninety-Five Senses
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
Who Will Win: War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
Never doubt someone with the Beatles behind them.
Who Should Win: Letter to a Pig
Animated Feature Film
Nominated:
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Who Will Win: The Boy and the Heron
Who Should Win: The Boy and the Heron
Listen, we all love us a Spider-Man. We love multiple Spider-Men even more. But this is Hayao Miyazaki we’re talking about. Disney and Pixar both had rough years, so the field is wide open for Ghibli to take home this much-deserved prize.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominated:
Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction)
Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
Who Will Win: Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
The dissonance between RDJ’s recent position as a Marvel fixture and this gruff dramatic turn will probably be enough to take him over the finish line (even if it’s not great).
Who Should Win: Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
Though De Niro, Ruffalo and Brown all steal scenes in various ways with their performances, the dueling forces of Gosling and Margot Robbie make Barbie as compelling and funny as it is. If loving Ken is wrong, I don’t want to be right.
Documentary (Short Subject)
Nominated:
The ABCs of Book Banning
The Barber of Little Rock
Island in Between
The Last Repair Shop
Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó
Who Will Win: Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó
I do wonder if Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó will coast to victory simply because filmmaker Sean Wang just premiered his feature debut Dìdi at Sundance.
Who Should Win: Island in Between
Documentary (Feature)
Nominated:
Bobi Wine: The People’s President
To Kill a Tiger
Who Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol
Who Should Win: 20 Days in Mariupol
Though Bobi Wine has been pushed hard, hard, hard in recent weeks, this is the Academy’s main chance to be political this year without saying anything at all about a ceasefire in Palestine. I’m guessing they’ll stick to Ukraine (and the film happens to be great).
Short Film (Live-Action)
Nominated:
The After
Invincible
Knight of Fortune
Red, White and Blue
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Who Will Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
First thing’s first: The Academy was not big on Anderson this year. Asteroid City got zilch at the Oscars, despite being great and lovely, as the Academy seemed to side with the naysayers who were vocally burnt out on his aesthetic. And yet, the short film folks were given a set of tailormade movies just for them, all with a similar level of craft and care as the auteur shows his features. That goes a long way, and Henry Sugar is a total showcase for how much fun design, choreography and storytelling you can pack into a brief runtime. Some of these other films have big names and important issues behind them, but this entry seems like a perfectly threaded needle.
Who Should Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
International Feature Film
Nominated:
Society of the Snow
The Teacher’s Lounge
The Zone of Interest
Who Will Win: The Zone of Interest
Who Should Win: The Zone of Interest
I have no faith in the Oscars awarding an experimental Holocaust film much outside of the International category, but I do think they’ll see the light here.
The Only Nominated Film Created To Celebrate The Tokyo Toilet Project: Perfect Days
Music (Original Song)
Nominated:
“The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot
“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
“It Never Went Away” from American Symphony
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon
“What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
Who Will Win: “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
Who Should Win: “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon
There Was An Original Song Written For A Movie Based On The (Fake) Invention Of A Cheeto? Apparently.
Music (Original Score)
Nominated:
American Fiction (Laura Karpman)
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (John Williams)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Robbie Robertson)
Oppenheimer (Ludwig Göransson)
Poor Things (Jerskin Fendrix)
Who Will Win: Killers of the Flower Moon (Robbie Robertson)
Who Should Win: Killers of the Flower Moon (Robbie Robertson)
Despite Ludwig Göransson turning in some excellent work, the late Robbie Robertson has more than just the text behind him. For one, the longtime Scorsese collaborator (and friend) died last August. For another, this project allowed him not only to work with Scorsese, but bring his Cayuga and Mohawk heritage to a film hammering home (with its music as much as anything else) the evils perpetrated upon the Osage. Robertson’s excellent, thrumming work has a lot of external weight behind it.
Directing
Nominated
Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
Who Will Win: Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
Not only did Christopher Nolan create a serious adult drama about a desperately depressing topic that was also an artistic feat and a box office smash, he did so while maintaining a completely game attitude towards his movie’s meshing with Barbie. The combination of a great movie and a great press cycle (Nolan’s a funny guy!) and a topic that feels just far away enough that we have some emotional distance from it — well, it means I’m betting on Oppenheimer winning big this year.
Who Should Win: Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
But boy, do I think Scorsese’s work is better. It’s had a quieter time out in the larger world, not bringing in nearly as many dollars or eyeballs, and its core issue is one white Americans still really would like to avoid thinking about. It’s also (I guess) easy to misread. But as a piece of tragic, engrossing, spectacular late-career commentary, you’re just not doing better than this…and at age 80!
Actress in a Leading Role
Nominated:
Annette Bening (Nyad)
Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)
Carey Mulligan (Maestro)
Emma Stone (Poor Things)
Who Will Win: Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Who Should Win: Emma Stone (Poor Things)
Gladstone is excellent, giving an understated and thoroughly detailed performance in a relatively small (and certainly quiet) role. Emma Stone is…everything Poor Things has to offer. She’s the total sum of the movie, in all its clownish physical comedy, brash sexuality and infantilized movement. Rarely am I on the side of the “Most” performance in these categories, but Stone goes biggest and it actually pays off thanks to the trust of Yorgos Lanthimos, the design of the movie itself and the deep well of ability tapped into by the actress.
Wait, So It Was Annette Bening Who Played Someone Named Nyad? Yes, that’s right.
Actor in a Leading Role
Nominated:
Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
Colman Domingo (Rustin)
Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
Who Will Win: Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
Who Should Win: Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
If Netflix Had Taste, It Would’ve Put All Its Rustin Money Behind: Jamie Foxx (They Cloned Tyrone)
Best Picture
Nominated:
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Who Will Win: Oppenheimer
Who Should Win: Killers of the Flower Moon
The Best Picture Where They Commit Eco-Terrorism: How to Blow Up a Pipeline
Jacob Oller is Movies Editor at Paste Magazine. You can follow him on Twitter at @jacoboller.
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