2024 Oscar Preview: Who Will Win and Who Should Win

After the Academy Awards ceremony calmed down from 2022’s slap-happy mess to a completely dull affair last year, it’s now time for our 2024 Oscar preview. Last year’s onslaught of Disney trailers (Disney-owned ABC airs the show) and complete dominance of Everything Everywhere All At Once was pleasantly broken up by a few genuinely affecting speeches and milestone wins. As we head towards the end of an awards season dominated by Barbie, Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon, it doesn’t seem like an unexpected sweep is coming. If anything, it would be unexpected if smaller movies like May December, Past Lives or Godzilla: Minus One managed to cut through the intense campaigning that has seemed more overwhelming than ever in the wake of the relative marketing quiet brought by last year’s strikes. As is often the case, it’s a matter of which Big Movie wins which Big Category—if Christopher Nolan’s well-loved biopic will overcome a late-career masterpiece from Martin Scorsese; if Bella Baxter or Barbie is the feminism-adjacent creation of the year; if a well-performed courtroom procedural will lose ground to a harrowing Holocaust film focused on the day-to-day procedure of those perpetrating it. That all said, those movies are actually (mostly) pretty good this year. Our 2024 Oscar preview has assessed the winners of awards season so far and is here with plenty of intel, both for who will win and who should.

Now, we’ve already written extensively about the best movies of 2023 and the best entries falling into specific categories ranging from comedy, sci-fi, action and horror to documentary, animation and movies from outside the U.S. But for those movies particularly singled out for this year’s awards, we’ll go a little deeper. This isn’t just mourning the snubbing of more deserving performers (like those critiquing actors in May December) for the sake of Nyad or the shutout of excellent queer films (like All of Us Strangers and Passages), but digging into the major categories like we do every year in order to highlight the discrepancy (or rare correlation) between what the Academy chooses to nod towards and what it actually names its winner.

Like any awards ceremony, there are flaws in both content and structure, but by analyzing both (as we partake in the madness alongside everyone else in the movie world) hopefully everyone can be a little more thoughtful when judging a movie based on how many gold statues a bunch of old white folks gave it a few decades back.

Here’s how to stream the 2024 Oscar nominees, and make sure you watch those short films! If you’re looking for more, check out some of our writing on the 2024 Oscar nominees and the best movies of the year:

• Killers of the Flower Moon Isn’t for an Indigenous Audience. It’s for the Wolves by Jacob Oller
• Barbie Rejects the Patriarchy like a True Lesbian Icon by Anna Govert
• Poor Things Showcases an Emma Stone Tour de Force by Tara Bennett
• Falling Apart with The Boy and the Heron by Jacob Oller
• Anatomy of a Fall and the Stories We Tell by Ursula Muñoz S.
• Selective Processing Is Oppenheimer’s Secret Weapon by Rory Doherty

Here’s our 2024 Oscar preview—who will win, and who should:

Original Screenplay

Nominated:

Anatomy of a Fall (Justine Triet and Arthur Harari)

The Holdovers (David Hemingson)

Maestro (Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer)

May December (Samy Burch)

Past Lives (Celine Song)

Who Will Win: May December (Samy Burch)

The screenplay awards are always where the Oscars like to throw a bone to the movies that they actually, secretly hate. Movies like May December, which has the gall to critique acting in hilarious, insightful, poignant ways. It may be a bit of a far-fetched guess for this nomination to actually win, but it’s also such a classic example of an awards phenomenon that I can’t not pick it. Besides, anyone who includes the parenthetical “(has literally never had a hot dog)” in their script is extremely deserving.

Who Should Win: Past Lives (Celine Song)

I admire many of these screenplays, but Song’s tight balancing act deeply impressed me when I first saw Past Lives. Not only does she clearly communicate a complex relationship evolving over time, but complicates it at just the right moment and in just the right way. Her framing device is clever, her jokes are punchy without being flashy, her love burns low and slow. All this, plus a keen sense for what parts of conversations to omit during the start or end of scenes, keeps the movie’s observational element elegant, realistic and all the more affecting.

Adapted Screenplay

Nominated:

American Fiction (Cord Jefferson)

Barbie (Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach)

Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)

Poor Things (Tony McNamara)

The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)

Who Will Win: Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)

Who Should Win: Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)

Who Would Technically Qualify For This Award If It Was Any Good: Cocaine Bear, loosely based on a real bear (and real cocaine)

Supporting Actress

Nominated:

Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)

Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)

America Ferrera (Barbie)

Jodie Foster (Nyad)

Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

Who Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

Who Should Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

It’s a tough category this year. None of these performances are particularly good, though Da’Vine Joy Randolph’s performance stands out for turning an unforgiving role into something with a lot of life. America Ferrara, also stuck with an unforgiving role, is the flip side of that coin. Jodie Foster was in Nyad, a real movie. She is Supporting because she does not play Nyad.

Costume Design

Nominated:

Barbie (Jacqueline Durran)

Killers of the Flower Moon (Jacqueline West)

Napoleon (Janty Yates and Dave Crossman)

Oppenheimer (Ellen Mirojnick)

Poor Things (Holly Waddington)

Who Will Win: Poor Things (Holly Waddington)

Though I was equally impressed with the work done in Poor Things and Killers of the Flower Moon (Napoleon and Oppenheimer both had big hats, I suppose), the Costume Designers Guild picked the big, bold steampunk stylings of the former.

Who Should Win: Poor Things (Holly Waddington)

Production Design

Nominated:

Barbie (Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer)

Killers of the Flower Moon (Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis)

Napoleon (Production Design: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Elli Griff)

Oppenheimer (Production Design: Ruth De Jong; Set Decoration: Claire Kaufman)

Poor Things (Production Design: James Price and Shona Heath; Set Decoration: Zsuzsa Mihalek)

Who Will Win: Poor Things (Production Design: James Price and Shona Heath; Set Decoration: Zsuzsa Mihalek)

Who Should Win: Barbie (Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer)

The Oscars Are Clearly Tired of Wes Anderson Award Goes To: Asteroid City

Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominated:

Golda (Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby and Ashra Kelly-Blue)

Maestro (Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell)

Oppenheimer (Luisa Abel)

Poor Things (Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston)

Society of the Snow (Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí and Montse Ribé)

Who Will Win: Maestro (Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell)

This is the category I’m most cynical about, the one that always seems to go to the biggest transformation no matter what. No matter how it looks, what purpose it serves, nothing. Bradley Cooper got warped into Leonard Bernstein, and his endless hours in the chair will likely be awarded — here, if nowhere else.

Who Should Win: Poor Things (Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston)

Cinematography

Nominated:

El Conde (Edward Lachman)

Killers of the Flower Moon (Rodrigo Prieto)

Maestro (Matthew Libatique)

Oppenheimer (Hoyte van Hoytema)

Poor Things (Robbie Ryan)

Who Will Win: Oppenheimer (Hoyte van Hoytema)

Who Should Win: Oppenheimer (Hoyte van Hoytema)

You Should Know This Thing That Rules: The newsreel footage from Killers of a Flower Moon was shot on Martin Scorsese’s hand-cranked Bell & Howell camera from 1917. Hell yeah.

Film Editing

Nominated:

Anatomy of a Fall (Laurent Sénéchal)

The Holdovers (Kevin Tent)

Killers of the Flower Moon (Thelma Schoonmaker)

Oppenheimer (Jennifer Lame)

Poor Things (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)

Who Will Win: Oppenheimer (Jennifer Lame)

Who Should Win: Killers of the Flower Moon (Thelma Schoonmaker)

Thelma Schoonmaker’s tight, always inventive hand keeps the long runtime of Scorsese’s epic zipping along, filled with punchlines and dramatic impact earned from abrupt cuts and changes in tempo.

Sound

Nominated:

The Creator (Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic)

Maestro (Steven A. Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic)

Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor)

Oppenheimer (Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O’Connell)

The Zone of Interest (Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn)

Who Will Win: Oppenheimer (Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O’Connell)

Who Should Win: The Zone of Interest (Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn)

Visual Effects

Nominated:

The Creator (Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts and Neil Corbould)

Godzilla: Minus One (Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima)

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams and Theo Bialek)

Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning, Part One (Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland and Neil Corbould)

Napoleon (Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco and Neil Corbould)

Who Will Win: The Creator (Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts and Neil Corbould)

Who Should Win: Godzilla: Minus One (Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima)

I have a very hard time getting my hopes up that this spectacular Godzilla movie, made with a relatively tiny budget, will beat out all this Hollywood fare — especially since The Creator has built its reputation on being a great-looking piece of original sci-fi that helped filmmaker Gareth Edwards get the new Jurassic Park gig. But wow, has Godzilla rarely looked better.